Email: runjing1@ualberta.ca Twitter: @RunjingLu

Publications

"Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections" (w/ Gordon Dahl and William Mullins), American Economic Review: Insights, forthcoming. AER:ISSRN. NBER.

  • Covered in Bloomberg, Vox Talks

  • Summary: we show large downstream fertility effects following Trump's 2016 election victory: Republican-leaning counties experienced a sharp increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, while Hispanic fertility fell relative to non-Hispanics.

How Racial Animus Forms and Spreads: Evidence from the Coronavirus Pandemic (w/ Yanying Sheng)Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Vol. 200, pp. 82-98, August 2022. JEBO. SSRN. arXiv.

  • Covered in CEPR Covid Econ papers, Vox TalksSouth China Morning PostWeekendavisen

  • Summary: the arrival of COVID-19 case in an area leads to an immediate surge in local anti-Asian animus. Moreover, public figures' opinions on the issue matters -- online animosity and offline hate incidents against Asians both heighten when President Trump frequently links China and COVID-19 in his tweets.

Social Undermining as a Dark Side of Symbolic Awards: Evidence from a RD Design (w/ Teng Li)Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 173, pp. 104-184, November 2022. OBHDPSSRN.

  • Summary: This paper studies the effects of a non-pecuniary symbolic award on winners, losers, and their peers, using a RD design. We find that barely winners perform worse than barely losers after the award designation, and peer sabotage is the main culprit.

Working Papers

Partisan Entrepreneurship (w/ Joey Engelberg, Jorge Guzman, Will Mullins). SSRN. NBER

  • Best Paper Prize in Corporate Finance at the 2022 MFA Conference 

  • Best Paper Prize at the 2021 Colorado Finance Summit

  • Covered in WSJ Real Time Economics

  • Presented at NBER Entrepreneurship SI*, HEC Paris Entrepreneurship Workshop*, Colorado Finance Summit*, SoCal PE, MFA, LMU, EFA

  • Summary: we show that Republicans start more firms than Democrats, and that this difference is time-varying: Republicans increase their relative entrepreneurship during Republican administrations and decrease it during Democratic administrations (and vice versa).

Partisan Sentiment and Innovation: Evidence from Patenters (w/ Joey Engelberg, Will Mullins, and Rick Townsend). SSRN.

  • Summary: We show that Democrat inventors are more likely to patent (relative to Republicans) after Obama's 2008 election but less likely so after Trump's 2016 victory. We also show a large drop in patenting by Immigrant inventors (relative to non-immigrants) after the 2016 election. Finally, we document an increasing trend in partisan concentration by technology class and firm and a decreasing tendency to form mixed-party teams over the past two decades. 

The Social Signal (w/ Tony Cookson, Will Mullins, and Marina Niessner). SSRN.

  • Best Paper Award at the 2022 Michigan State FCU Conference 

  • Summary: we study social media attention and sentiment from three major platforms: Twitter, StockTwits, and Seeking Alpha. We find that attention is highly correlated across platforms, but sentiment is not. We also find that sentiment and attention are both positively related to retail trading imbalance, but contain different return-relevant information. Sentiment-induced retail trading imbalance predicts positive next-day returns, but attention-induced imbalance predicts strongly negative next-day returns. These results highlight the practical importance of distinguishing between social media sentiment and attention.

Stale Information in the Spotlight: The Effects of Attention Shocks on Equity Markets (w/ Siyu Chen). SSRN.

  • Best Doctoral Paper Prize in Financial Markets at the 2018 SWFA

  • Summary: Using a RD design, we study the causal impact of an influential star analyst award on market reaction and analysts’ post-award performance. Award announcement leads to higher market reaction to stocks with preexisting recommendations from barely winners than those from barely nonwinners. Evidence strongly suggests that attention trading and speculative trading are the main driving force. 

Work in Progress

Cross-State Strategic Voting (w/ Gordon Dahl, Joey Engelberg, and Will Mullins)

* presented by coauthor; ^ scheduled presentation