Email: runjing1@ualberta.ca Twitter: @RunjingLu

Working Papers

Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections (w/ Gordon Dahl, Will Mullins)SSRN. NBER.

Conditionally Accepted at AER: Insights 

  • Current version: Aug 2021

  • Presentations: AEA (scheduled), NBER Children SI*.

  • Media coverage: Bloomberg

  • Summary: we show large downstream fertility effects following Trump's 2016 election victory: Republican-leaning counties experienced a sharp increase in fertility relative to Democratic counties, while Hispanic fertility fell relative to non-Hispanics.

 

How Racial Animus Forms and Spreads: Evidence from the Coronavirus Pandemic (w/ Yanying Sheng)SSRN. arXiv.

R&R at JEBO

  • Current version: Oct 2021

  • Presentations: AEA (scheduled), APPAM (scheduled).

  • Media coverage: CEPR Covid Econ papers, VoxTalkSouth China Morning PostWeekendavisen

  • Summary: we show that the arrival of COVID-19 case in an area leads to an immediate surge in local anti-Asian Google searches and Twitter posts. Moreover, public figures' opinions on the issue matters -- online animosity and offline hate incidents against Asians both heighten when President Trump more frequently links China and COVID-19 in his tweets.

Social Undermining as a Dark Side of Symbolic Awards: Evidence from a RD Design (w/ Teng Li)SSRN.
2nd round R&R at OBHDP

  • Current version: Jun 2021

  • Presentations: SOLE, COPE, ACLEC poster, EMCON, Warwick PhD conference

  • Summary: This paper studies the effects of a non-pecuniary symbolic award on winners, losers, and their peers, using a RD design. We find that barely winners perform worse than barely losers after the award designation, and peer sabotage is the main culprit.

Partisan Entrepreneurship (w/ Joey Engelberg, Jorge Guzman, Will Mullins). SSRN

  • Current version: Nov 2021

  • Presentations: NBER Entrepreneurship SI*, HEC Paris Entrepreneurship Workshop (scheduled), Colorado Finance Summit (scheduled).

  • Summary: we show that Republicans start more firms than Democrats, and that this difference is time-varying: Republicans increase their relative entrepreneurship during Republican administrations and decrease it during Democratic administrations (and vice versa).

The Impact of Star Analyst Awards on Equity Markets: A Regression Discontinuity Design (w/ Siyu Chen). SSRN.

  • Current version: Jan 2021

  • SWFA Best Doctoral Paper in Financial Markets.

  • Presentations: SWFA, AFA poster, FMA PhD Session, ABFE, SFA, IBEFA

  • Summary: Using a RD design, we study the causal impact of an influential star analyst award on market reaction and analysts’ post-award performance. Award announcement leads to higher market reaction to stocks with preexisting recommendations from barely winners than those from barely nonwinners. Evidence strongly suggests that attention trading and speculative trading are the main driving force. 

When Weed is Legalized Next Door: How Colorado's Recreational Marijuana Legalization Affects Neighboring States [Appendix]

  • Current version: Dec 2018

  • Summary: This paper studies the effect of the Recreational Marijuana Legalization (RML) in Colorado on the illegal marijuana possession in its neighboring states. After Colorado's RML, counties closer to the Colorado border experience higher increase in illegal marijuana possession offenses and arrests among adult males than counties farther away.

Work in Progress

Stock Market's Toll on Newborns' Health

* Presented by coauthor.